In Depth: What is really going on with The Demo…
There’s been a lot of news lately about what’s going on with The Demo in Cable News. But what do the numbers really say? Well if you look at what has gone on this year so far, the early trend, and I emphasize the world “early”, suggests that CNN is trending down in the Primetime Demo while FNC and MSNBC are mixed with both having gone up and down.
But is that really a clear sign of a trend? Let’s go back further. Beginning with September 2001 the trends between CNN and FNC have been relatively similar in their respective rise and fall in the Demo.
There really hasn’t been that much of a change in the gaps between the networks if you factor out the spikes and dips caused by peak news periods like Hurricanes and Elections. When FNC went down, CNN tended to go down. When FNC went up, CNN tended to go up. Here’s another breakout of the numbers by year for FNC and CNN…
Total Day
In 2002, FNC was up 44% in P2+ and up 47% in demo while CNN was down 7% in P2+ and down 22% in demo
In 2003, FNC was up 53% in viewers and up 52% in demo while CNN was up 24% in P2+ and up 46% in demo
In 2004, FNC was down 11% in viewers and down 20% in the demo while CNN was down 28% in P2+ and down 39% in demo
In 2005, FNC was up 5% in P2+ and down 7% in demo while CNN was up 8% in P2+ and up 10% in demo
2006 to date, FNC is down 13% in viewers and down 26% in demo while CNN is down 16% in viewers and down 21% in Demo
Prime Time
In 2002, FNC was up 36% in P2+ and 41% in demo while CNN was down 11% in P2+ and down 26% in demo
In 2003, FNC was up 45% in viewers and 45% in demo while CNN was up 22% in P2+ and 43% in demo
In 2004, FNC was down 2% in viewers and 13% in the demo while CNN was down 22% in P2+ and 33% in demo
In 2005, FNC was up 6% in P2+ and down 13% in demo while CNN was flat in P2+ and up 8% in demo
2006 to date, FNC is down 17% in viewers and 31% in demo while CNN is down 18% in viewers and 32% in Demo
The only noticeable sustained narrowing in 2006 occurred between MSNBC and CNN. And even the MSNBC/CNN gap widened ever so slightly in April.
So what’s it all mean? Excluding 2006, which in my opinion is inconclusive to establishing a clear trend though CNN’s Demo decline is somewhat noteworthy because it’s been consistent so far this year, the changes in Demo numbers indicate that the three networks are more or less lockstep in the same direction.
This is one reason why I gave up posting daily ratings. I found that doing that caused too much “instant reaction” to daily numbers without taking into consideration long range trends. It’s easy to carp on CNN or FNC or MSNBC for being down on a given night or week. Or even a month. These things need to be measured in the long term to truly establish a trend.
Ok here, is it just a coincidence that ICN and FTV Live does a compare the demo essay? Something tells me this a coup of the FNC PR department.
Comment by Tim — May 10, 2006 @ 10:44 pm
Good analysis here. If you read article on the silly TVNewser site written by the college-age MSNBC PR hack, you would think FNC and CNN are close to firing all their employees while the studios in Secaucus are built with pure gold. In reality, not much has changed, and MSNBC is a struggling network that’s possibly on its last legs.
Comment by benllv — May 11, 2006 @ 12:51 am
What a stupid exaggeration, benllv. You’re just such a blatant MSNBC hater that you’d stick them in the ground right now and declare Fox the winner if you were allowed to. Champing at the bit to do it.
Comment by tanne — May 11, 2006 @ 7:19 am
Thanks for the analysis, and the data! It’s always nice to get all the facts, especially when other blogs don’t give all the information out to their readers.
Comment by mia — May 11, 2006 @ 2:49 pm
TVNewser is at it again. Under a post headlined “How Low Can Zahn Go,” the kid cherry-picks a reader comment about Zahn’s Tuesday night demo numbers. Ignored is the fact that she beat Olbermann in total viewers, and that Olbermann finished 3rd in the demo and last in total viewers.
When a CNN or FOX anchor/commentator has a bad ratings night in a select demo, it’s all over the site. When a certain MSNBC commentator who purports to be an anchor reverts back to his traditional last-place ways, there’s silence. How pathetic.
Comment by benllv — May 11, 2006 @ 5:57 pm
“Reverts back to his last-place ways.” For ONE NIGHT? That hardly counts. Besides, it’s not news when a show that had low ratings in the past has low ratings again for a night here or there. It IS news when a normally higher-rated show drops, or shows a pattern of dropping.
Besides which, when are you ever going to get the point…total viewers don’t really matter…the DEMO matters. Whether you personally want it to or not!
You’re the one who’s pathetic, benllv. Because you wish soooo bad that Brian wasn’t doing as well as he is…you are soooo envious it just drips from you.
Comment by tanne — May 13, 2006 @ 1:52 pm