Cart before the horse…
This is a bit overdramatic. You could be excused if you mistakenly thought you were witnessing the closing moments of Star Wars with Luke Olbermann firing a proton torpedo into the FNC Death Star while a helpless Darth O’Reilly spins off into space.
Can we please have some perspective here? It was one win in the Demo (based on Live+SD ratings and not Live ratings…more on that later in another post). Just one win. But the positive PR emanating out of Secaucus is disproportionately high. Look, I won’t diss MSNBC because Olbermann finally edged out O’Reilly in a fair fight (e.g. not skewed by breaking news or a special event) for the first time (caveat: Live+SD vs. Live). But at the same time this is hardly the time to be doing cartwheels and cracking open the champagne either. Not over one day’s ratings to be sure.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. For a trend you need long term data. Setting aside the Live+SD vs. Live issue, what we’ve seen is short term data at best. I won’t say that it’s not possible that Countdown is on an upswing and O’Reilly has reason to be worried. But I certainly am not going to say it’s the only possible conclusion to come to. There are alternate conclusions just as viable. And I like keeping my mind open to the possibility that this could all change next week.
UPDATE: Case in point…last night’s 8pm numbers (in Live+SD for an apples to apples comparison to Friday)
The O’Reilly Factor — 2,308,000 viewers/510,000 in 25-54 demo
Countdown with Keith Olbermann — 876, 000 viewers/388,000 in 25-54 demo
UPDATE: Totally off topic but as long as I’m relaying Live+SD Demo numbers, Abrams beat Larry King last night…
Dont let the facts get in the way of Olby lovers dreams.
Comment by Tom P — September 11, 2007 @ 3:28 pm
While I’m neutral on the KO/BO love fest.. I did find this part of TVN’s post quite entertaining. And I’ll let ya decide on why that is!
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When asked to comment for this story, Fox News spokesperson Irena Briganti wrote, “Does Mediabistro know you’re on two payrolls — MSNBC’s and theirs?”
(of course, I haven’t been on MSNBC’s payroll since I left the company in January.)
Comment by Terance — September 11, 2007 @ 3:37 pm
MSNBC should have reason to celebrate. They have been kicked so many times for being so low in the ratings that their recent trends up is worthy of congrats.
So many of the anti-Olbermann folks on this blog keep mocking him for being so low in the ratings, they have reason to shout back…even if only once in a blue moon.
Comment by Champa — September 11, 2007 @ 3:42 pm
Thanks Spud for pointing out the obvious (and I mean that in a nice way). I had no idea tht one day somehow constituted a ratings “trend”.
And Fox still wins the prize for the most acidic retorts! Oh yeah, in addition to winning the ratings race.
Comment by Alison — September 11, 2007 @ 3:46 pm
Well if KO and MSNBC are going to live by this twisted ratings system they’ll have to die by it….so when O’Reilly beats him again they can’t say it doesn’t mean anything at the end of the day O’Reilly isn’t losing any sleep over KO…because KO ratings spike up and down base on what ever “Special Comment” he has and once people watch him for a bit realize he’s just a one trick pony and move on to something else.
Comment by mlong — September 11, 2007 @ 4:00 pm
So many of the anti-Olbermann folks on this blog keep mocking him for being so low in the ratings, they have reason to shout back…even if only once in a blue moon.
I don’t think the two equate. Yes, we do have a disproportionate number of KO haters and bashers here and yes they do exaggerate his numbers and how “low” they are. And frankly I don’t give them much credence as a result.
But just because all that’s true doesn’t mean that MSNBC should be given a pass for turning this into something it’s not. Celebrate? Sure. A win is a win. But put the win in context and celebrate given the knowledge that it was just one day and the next could be a totally different result.
Comment by Spud — September 11, 2007 @ 4:08 pm
mlong, by twisted ratings system, do you mean the one used for all the rest of television? Is that the twisted ratings system?
Comment by randy — September 11, 2007 @ 4:12 pm
OK, so the guy who runs TVnewser use to work for MS-NBC, he prints a press release from them just as Olbermann’s “Fox=Al Qeada/KKK” comments are starting to get some blow back from the MSM. I understand that part, spin machine in action…but did MS-NBC really feel they had to release this on 9/11. It’s just kind of sad, really. Maybe thats the real “perspective” needed.
Comment by Obama in 08! — September 11, 2007 @ 4:20 pm
randy
Yes it is twisted ratings system ..even though O’Reilly has well over twice the number of viewers as KO..people say KO won because the “right kind of people” were watching him..thats a twisted system.
Comment by mlong — September 11, 2007 @ 4:26 pm
Listen
idiotsmisguided individuals.For the past year the Fox News Klansmen on this board have been obsessed with seeing Countdown in third or fourth place in the past year which he frequently held. He has more or less dominated second place for the past month and half and now he is seeing some recent gains in the demo.
How effing dare you
moronsblessed individuals of European descent act like this is only about some one day event.Comment by elmonica — September 11, 2007 @ 4:28 pm
But it was just a one-day event. But hey Elmonica, don’t let things like facts get in the way of your argument, such as it is.
Comment by Alison — September 11, 2007 @ 4:37 pm
Please, even Nancy Grace beats Olby all the time. If the guy stays on top for more than a week in actual ratings, let’s talk.
Comment by moonbeam — September 11, 2007 @ 4:45 pm
Eh. Everyone loves a cinderella story, is all. It’s like the Karate Kid. Heh.
In other news, the late unlamented Mary Snow was last seen on the mediabistro boards calling herself ‘Arthur’, the beeyotch. Tip: if it’s not UncleArthur on MB, it’s not me.
Comment by Arthur — September 11, 2007 @ 5:18 pm
Hmmm I noticed that Arthur…I thought you were getting pissed off at me too or something LOL
Comment by Anonymous — September 11, 2007 @ 5:44 pm
How in the world is Live Plus considered?
One reason I TVO/ Tape anything is so I don’t have to WATCH THE COMMERCIALS….I buzz thru them and see snippets of legs/ cars/ beer/ deodorant etc…where as watching live I pretty much have to watch the advertisements(especially when wife is around who frowns when I flip remote during those “all important” commercials)
Comment by TK — September 11, 2007 @ 5:51 pm
Why can Fox not use the same system just for fun to see how that turns out? In other words, what would OR be if they used the same yardstick Olby does?
Comment by Sophia — September 11, 2007 @ 5:52 pm
For a trend you need long term data….What we’ve seen is short term data at best. I won’t say that it’s not possible that Countdown is on an upswing…
If the question is just whether Countdown is “on an upswing,” well, there is no question about that. We do have plenty enough of “long term data.” Take Countdown’s average rating for any recent month & compare it with that same month a year ago, and then that same month two years ago. The general direction of Countdown’s ratings has been upwards for a long time now. Meanwhile, looking at long-term trends, rather than day-to-day fluctuations, the Factor has been flat-to-losing-ground. Those are pretty undenialbe facts, backed up by lots of long-term data.
If the question is whether Countdown has already passed the Factor, then you’re right. No, all that’s happened is that on one of its “up” days, Countdown beat the Factor and all the other primetime cable news shows in the demo. But remember, it wasn’t too long ago that an “up” day for Countdown meant getting one-third of the Factor’s demo ratings. So long-term is definitely up for Countdown.
Comment by Gramps — September 11, 2007 @ 6:28 pm
7: How is this for twisted?
The “money demo” is the mid slice of the viewers grouped by ages, the ones advertisers strongly want to have watching their commercials, so a high money demo is important in selling products.
KO and TV Newser use a MODIFIED money demo in which it INCLUDES viewers in the desired age group who record the program and then watch it the same day, most likely fast-forwarding through the commercials.
Now the fun part: It’s 11 pm on the East Coast. Under this modified system, you count the people watching Olbermann and fast forwarding through the commercials but DISREGARD those watching O’Reilly’s 11 pm broadcast on FNC! And those people watching FNC at 11 pm are not fast forwarding through the commercials.
Logical only in Olbyland….
Comment by Missouri Show Me — September 11, 2007 @ 8:54 pm
Thanks Missouri. I guess that’s what we’ve all been thinking. While this “count the demo the advertisers count while knowing that the ads themselves will be FF’d over via DVR” logic makes no sense whatsoever, in Olbyland, up is down, right is left, etc.
Comment by Missy — September 11, 2007 @ 9:03 pm
Under this modified system, you …DISREGARD those watching O’Reilly’s 11 pm broadcast
Umm, no: You count those watching O’Reilly’s 11 pm broadcast toward — OF COURSE! — his 11 pm ratings, just like they count those watching Olbermann’s 12 midnight rebroadcast toward Countdown’s 12 o’clock ratings and not toward his 8 o’clock numbers. Same, same. There’s no giant conspiracy to get O’Reilly. That’s the deal you make when you decide to rebroadcast your show: A deal that both the Factor and the Countdown people have decided to make.
Comment by Gramps — September 11, 2007 @ 10:59 pm
Sophia, even though FNC most certainly wins in both demos with or without dvr numbers.. something tells me they’d rather keep the current “distance” with just live numbers. Its sort of like pimpin’ total numbers or the demo depending on which one makes you look better.
Comment by Terance — September 12, 2007 @ 1:03 pm